← STRATEGY REGISTRYHistorical backtest

STXUSDTTrend following

Follows changes in the prevailing price trend.

Shortstxusdt-344912cbaf

Data updated: 2026-10-19

ANNUAL RETURN (CAGR)65.61%

NET RETURN1,022.73%

MAX MARK DRAWDOWN31.50%

BTC BUY & HOLD76.24%

Cumulative return

StrategyBTC spot buy-and-hold

Drawdown

StrategyBTC spot buy-and-hold

Daily observations. Headline Max Mark DD uses the full native-resolution simulation.

Strategy profile

Direction: Short
BTC filter: No
Protective stop: ATR
Signal exit: Yes
Exit rules: Signal / stop loss / time limit
Position sizing: Notional allocation
Backtest start: 2022-01-01
Backtest end: 2026-10-18 (exclusive)
Closed positions: 272
Profitable trades: 33.09%
Best calendar month: 54.93%
Worst calendar month: -11.85%
Longest daily underwater spell: 338 days
Daily return volatility: 2.08%

Rolling 12-month return

StrategyBTC spot buy-and-hold

Trailing calendar-year return, without annualizing shorter windows. The first 12 months have no values.

Quarterly returns

StrategyBTC spot buy-and-hold

Full calendar quarters only; partial quarters excluded. Consistency is the share of these quarters with a positive strategy return.

Time below previous peak

StrategyBTC spot buy-and-hold

Days since the previous daily equity peak; resets to zero when that peak is recovered.

Rolling 90-day BTC correlation

Strategy versus BTC

Correlation of daily returns over 90 complete daily observations, from −1 to +1. Gaps mean undefined correlation. This does not indicate whether BTC is used in signals.

Monthly returns / %

YEARJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC2022-11.2%7.1%3.0%8.4%7.1%8.6%6.8%-11.1%4.9%2.8%19.0%20.8%2023-11.8%-4.8%0.0%25.7%0.3%-3.7%-0.1%-2.1%-2.4%-2.1%-1.4%2.1%2024-5.6%-8.3%5.7%22.3%9.4%-5.0%26.2%1.1%-5.7%-7.7%-5.6%54.9%202514.4%40.3%-8.5%-0.5%40.9%10.4%-5.5%-4.9%5.4%2.8%13.9%12.8%202618.6%-4.0%-2.2%-3.3%-1.1%23.8%7.8%-1.2%-8.6%-6.5%——

Calendar-year performance

Period	Strategy	BTC hold
2022	81.49%	-64.22%
2023	-4.12%	155.62%
2024	88.92%	121.29%
2025	184.11%	-6.33%
2026	20.21%	-7.02%

First and last periods may be partial. Returns are not annualized.

Reading this report

Both curves begin at zero percent on the same effective start date. BTC is a spot buy-and-hold benchmark.

Profitable trades counts fully closed positions after costs and funding. It is not the percentage of positive days.

Different start dates describe different market histories; compare periods before comparing rankings.

Methodology & limitations

Historical simulation. Closed-bar signals and next-open execution; fees, slippage and historical funding included. BTC spot benchmark includes entry costs and no perpetual funding. Account value is compounded continuously without annual resets.

Observed research periods are not untouched out-of-sample data. Daily analytics use QuantStats; headline financial metrics use the saved backtest. Current instrument constraints are applied retrospectively. Leveraged simulations do not model exchange liquidation. Calculation cutoff: 2026-10-18, exclusive.