← STRATEGY REGISTRYHistorical backtest

HBARUSDTEMA trend following

Shorts bearish EMA crossovers with trend-strength and volatility confirmation. Positions exit on a bullish crossover or protective orders.

Shorthbarusdt-43084338e4

Data updated: 2026-10-18

ANNUAL RETURN (CAGR)52.91%

NET RETURN664.23%

MAX MARK DRAWDOWN24.10%

BTC BUY & HOLD77.70%

Cumulative return

StrategyBTC spot buy-and-hold

Drawdown

StrategyBTC spot buy-and-hold

Daily observations. Headline Max Mark DD uses the full native-resolution simulation.

Strategy profile

Direction: Short
BTC filter: No
Protective stop: ATR
Signal exit: Yes
Exit rules: Signal / stop loss / take profit
Position sizing: Rule-based sizing
Backtest start: 2022-01-01
Backtest end: 2026-10-16 (exclusive)
Closed positions: 100
Profitable trades: 44.00%
Best calendar month: 21.85%
Worst calendar month: -12.58%
Longest daily underwater spell: 255 days
Daily return volatility: 1.44%

Rolling 12-month return

StrategyBTC spot buy-and-hold

Trailing calendar-year return, without annualizing shorter windows. The first 12 months have no values.

Quarterly returns

StrategyBTC spot buy-and-hold

Full calendar quarters only; partial quarters excluded. Consistency is the share of these quarters with a positive strategy return.

Time below previous peak

StrategyBTC spot buy-and-hold

Days since the previous daily equity peak; resets to zero when that peak is recovered.

Rolling 90-day BTC correlation

Strategy versus BTC

Correlation of daily returns over 90 complete daily observations, from −1 to +1. Gaps mean undefined correlation. This does not indicate whether BTC is used in signals.

Monthly returns / %

YEARJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC2022-6.5%14.1%-3.9%-4.1%10.9%17.2%2.3%10.1%8.7%-12.6%15.8%14.2%2023-3.9%10.3%-7.4%21.9%4.1%2.9%5.4%-3.3%-3.0%6.2%-11.5%-4.0%20240.5%5.1%10.6%21.5%6.2%9.7%18.0%10.0%-2.6%13.5%0.0%-3.9%20254.1%6.2%10.2%-0.9%5.2%10.0%-7.9%-7.8%7.8%5.3%10.4%9.6%2026-7.7%-7.1%10.0%-4.1%7.9%8.7%6.0%2.9%-10.3%-4.0%——

Calendar-year performance

Period	Strategy	BTC hold
2022	80.99%	-64.25%
2023	14.25%	155.62%
2024	127.66%	121.29%
2025	62.86%	-6.33%
2026	-0.32%	-6.18%

First and last periods may be partial. Returns are not annualized.

Reading this report

Both curves begin at zero percent on the same effective start date. BTC is a spot buy-and-hold benchmark.

Profitable trades counts fully closed positions after costs and funding. It is not the percentage of positive days.

Different start dates describe different market histories; compare periods before comparing rankings.

Methodology & limitations

Historical simulation. Closed-bar signals and next-open execution; fees, slippage and historical funding included. BTC spot benchmark includes entry costs and no perpetual funding. Account value is compounded continuously without annual resets.

Observed research periods are not untouched out-of-sample data. Daily analytics use QuantStats; headline financial metrics use the saved backtest. Current instrument constraints are applied retrospectively. Leveraged simulations do not model exchange liquidation. Calculation cutoff: 2026-10-16, exclusive.